Monday, October 3, 2011

Smart Polling from EKOS: No Sign of Ontario Shifting to Tories


Click to Enlarge
  •  37.8% LPO
  • 30.6% PC
  • 22.7% NDP
  • 7.3% Green
  • 1.6% other
Direction of province (Ontario):
  • 59% right direction
  • 41% wrong direction
Direction of provincial government (Ontario):
  • 53% right direction
  • 47% wrong direction
Impact of majority Conservative federal government on provincial vote intention:
  • 42% less likely to vote Ontario PC
    Click to Enlarge
  • 34% neither more or less likely
  • 16% more likely to vote Ontario PC
  • 8% DK/NR
Emotions towards McGuinty government:
  • 27% Discouraged
  • 26% Angry
  • 24% Hopeful
  • 11% Happy
  • 11% DK/NR
What surprises me here in particular are the results on the impact of a majority federal government - 42% less likely to vote PC and only 16% likely  to vote PC as a result of that fact - and the demographic breakdown on  the direction of  both the government and the province. I also find the demographic  analysis of emotion fascinating. See the entire piece at  to examine those intriguing breakdown analyses. Here's a teaser:

"The Ontario Liberals have an insignificant lead with seniors (which may be growing) and they are also leading with the crucial boomer segment. The Progressive Conservatives do well with seniors and men but they also do well with lower-educated voters who are less likely to vote. The Ontario Liberal Party has a massive lead with the university educated who are very likely to vote and may be emotionally engaged by the Liberals as well. The NDP does well with all of the groups that are softer voters (younger and lower socioeconomic status groups) and there is some evidence that they are not emotionally engaged enough to actually show up in the same proportions that they are found in our surveys."

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